The problem
The loan you signed in 2020 isn’t the loan you’ll get in 2027.
The 10-year Treasury averaged 0.89% in 2020. On September 29, 2026, it closed at 5.26%. $652 billion of commercial mortgages are scheduled to mature in 2027, and many are attached to buildings worth more than ever that will still come up short.
01 · Refinance
Your value is up. Your loan amount is down.
Lenders now size refinances on cash flow. If your leases were signed years ago, debt-service coverage, not appraisal, sets the ceiling on your new loan.
02 · Timing
The calendar is not on your side.
Under SBA rules, a loan that matures and goes unpaid for more than 29 days can’t be refinanced with a 504 or 7(a). Start 12 months out, not 12 weeks.
03 · Rates
Waiting for rates is a bet, not a plan.
The Fed’s median projection holds its policy rate at 4.1% through the end of 2027. No forecast we track returns to the rates these loans were written at.
04 · Buying
Paying Marin rent? Own the building instead.
Marin industrial space asks about $1.66 a foot a month. Owner-users can buy with as little as 10% down through SBA 504, at a fixed rate with no balloon.
$358K
The shortfall at maturity on an illustrative 12,000 sf Novato flex building, worth $3.1 million, with a $1.8 million balloon. Every half-point of rate moves it by $60,000 to $70,000. Most owners learn this from their lender, late.
Sources: FRED (DGS10); Mortgage Bankers Association, Feb 2026; Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections, Sept 16, 2026; SBA SOP 50 10 8; Cushman & Wakefield North Bay Industrial MarketBeat, Q2 2026. The $358K figure is an illustrative analysis, not a quote.